Tuesday, November 4, 2008

2008-2009 NBA Regular Season Preview

Well I'm gonna try to start this up again, and I'm not going to waste any time with another intro. Just know that I know more about the topics I choose than you do so respect the work accordingly.

And I apologize for this being a little late, but it's only a week into the season so if you don't like it, turn off your station. (Playoff seeds in parenthesis)

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

1) Boston Celtics (1) – This is still the best and most complete team in the division. KG will always be an MVP candidate as long as he brings the same intensity he does every year, and a lot of people will be very surprised about how good Rajon Rondo actually is.

2) Philadelphia 76ers (3) – The 6ers were a very good team at the end of last year, and adding a healthy Elton Brand to a young and improving group of players can only help. They still don't have any shooters but they do have Louis Williams, who will become a household name in the near future.

3) Toronto Raptors (6) – Toronto is going to surprise people for one reason: Jermaine O'Neal. I am of the belief that he simply stopped giving a shit about his situation in Indiana resulting in his conditioning -- and thus his health – suffering. He's still only 30 and if he goes back to the 19.4, 9.6 and 2.6 guy he was just two years ago, they're gonna win some games. Also watch out for Jamario Moon to have a big year running with Jose Calderon – both will benefit greatly from each other.

4) New Jersey Nets – Rod Thorn continues to prove himself to be one of the best GMs in the league. Think I'm crazy? The two most important positions in basketball are point guard and center, and the Nets have a solid group of players at both positions. Devin Harris is a stud in the making and Keyon Dooling is one of the best defensive PGs in the country. Josh Boone, Sean Williams and rookie Brook Lopez make up a pretty good platoon of pivots – especially Williams if he ever pulls his head out of his ass. This still isn't a playoff team, but they're definitely getting up there and it'll be interesting to see what they're able to do with Vince Carter.

5) New York Knicks – This team is really bad. D'Antoni is a very good coach, a great offensive mind. But where he had Steve Nash in Phoenix, he now has CHRIS DUHON in the Big Apple. If Duhon has anything resembling a Steve Nash-esque season I will officially profess my undying allegiance to Mike D'Antoni for being the greatest offensive mind in all of Sport.

Central

1) Detroit Pistons (2) – Remember these guys? The clearcut #2 team in the Eastern Conference last year? Yea those guys. Except now, while they have only one regular (Antonio McDyess) who will probably see a decline in his effectiveness, they have a bunch of young guys (Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson – the last two will more than make up for McDyess) who will be much better than they were last year. They also have Kwame Brown. (Note: since I got this done late, I wasn't able to include the Billups/McDyess for Iverson trade til late. I think this will greatly benefit the Pistons, especially if Iverson is willing to be their Manu off the bench)

2) Cleveland Cavaliers (5) – As long as the best player in the world suits up for them (two more years) the Cavs are going to be a threat to win the conference. But I'm not as high on this team as most people are. The only upgrade on the roster over last year (other than LeBron's personal improvement) is Mo Williams, a guy who put up decent stats (17 pts 6 asts) on a piss-poor Bucks team. He is talented, and if he can really be LeBron's right hand man then they're going to be great, I just won't crown the King's minions just yet.

3) Chicago Bulls (8) – There is a lot of talent on the Chicago roster, led by the next great – and I mean GREAT – point guard in Derrick Rose. They're very weak up front and that'll likely put them back in the lottery this year, but they have a couple pieces (Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon) to move in exchange for some interior scoring. The guy to keep an eye on here (besides Rose) is Tyrus Thomas. Not only have his skills been progressing, but pairing him with Rose will only benefit all of those involved.

4) Indiana Pacers – This is the Forrest Gump team of the NBA: a little retarded and running all the time. With TJ Ford at point, Danny Granger on the wing (and nothing else), they'll have no choice. Actually Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy are pretty good, but nothing particularly special, unless you're doing fantasy basketball.

5) Milwaukee Bucks – I think this team has a few players, but ultimately they're just not that good. First, they don't have a point guard. Luke Ridnour? HA! Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut is a solid quartet, but they don't play good defense and they have absolutely no depth behind them anyway.

Southeast

1) Orlando Magic (4) – I hate putting the Magic ahead of the Wizards; if both teams were healthy there'd be no question in my mind that Orlando is the inferior team. But a couple knee and wrist surgeries later, here we are. Orlando did improve this year with the addition of Michael Pietrus – who I think was very underutilized last year by the Warriors – and the inevitable improvement of Dwight Howard. But Howard isn't as great as everyone thinks. He's 100% strength and athleticism, and very little skill and anticipation. His poor footwork leaves him with bad post skills, on both sides of the ball. But with that said, he's still ridiculously talented and this team will be better than last year.

2) Washington Wizards (7) – Caron Butler is the most underrated player in the NBA. And if you dismiss that statement as biased, I dare you to provide an alternative name. But with that said, the weakness of the Southeast's is the main reason why the Wizards are this high. Brendan Haywood's wrist injury will be worse for the team than Gilbert's latest knee surgery because his improvement, especially on the defensive end, was the biggest reason why the team was able to succeed without their best player. Now they have to start Etan Thomas good god. The wild card will obviously be if Arenas can come back healthy. If so, they will be an offensive force until Haywood comes back and completes the team. Also keep an eye on Nick Young.

3) Charlotte Bobcats – I first need to say, I think the bottom three teams in the Southeast are interchangeable. All three actually have a lot of talent, but for one reason or another they're simply not good teams. Charlotte has a bunch of good players, led by Jason Richardson. But instead of drafting a guy – albeit an overrated guy – in Brook Lopez to give them a decent post scorer, they decided to take PG DJ Augustin when they already had a good PG in Raymond Felton. I just don't get it.

4) Miami Heat – Dwyane Wade, when healthy, is arguably one of the five best players in the NBA. I wouldn't argue it, but the case can be made. Shawn Marion is extremely talented, and Michael Beasley is going to be a stud. But all three guys are primarily scorers. Marion isn't good without a PG to set him up, and Beasley is just a rookie. Plus, after those three, they have next-to-nothing. If Wade plays 70+ games, they might compete for the 8th seed in the East.

5) Atlanta Hawks – They have one of the most talented starting 5s in the NBA, but almost no bench to speak of. I am the biggest Josh Smith fan there is, same goes for Joe Johnson. Johnson is a legit superstar, and Josh Smith has the ability to be a top five player in the league. But while they have two point guards (too old Mike Bibby and too young Acie Law) they have zero depth beyond that and it'll hurt them, especially later in the season.

Western Conference

Northwest

1) Utah Jazz (4) – I really like the Jazz, they have possibly the best coach in the NBA, a very deep rotation, and the best point guard in the NBA. Yes, I said it. Deron Williams is the best PG in the league; he's the better scorer, defender and passer in comparison to Chris Paul. Paul is the better creator, so depending on what you want in your PG, he might be your guy. But Williams is better. Also keep an eye on Ronnie Brewer, I expect big things.

2) Portland Trail Blazers (8) – I think this is a playoff team, but anything beyond that is dependant entirely on the health and production of Greg Oden. If he's the defensive force everyone thinks he can be, they could make some noise in April. But if he's as injury prone (and as god awful offensively) as he appears, they'll be an 8 seed and get bounced in the first round. LaMarcus Aldridge is a beast, fyi.

3) Denver Nuggets – After giving Marcus Camby away to the Clippers for literally nothing, the worst defensive team in the NBA got that much worse. Now they've traded their best offensive player (AI) for a declining and slightly overrated Chauncey Billups, I just don't see how they could win more than 35 games.

4) Oklahoma City Thunder – They're gonna be one of the worst teams in the league, but Kevin Durant is going to be a superstar. I also really like their selection of Russell Westbrook; I liken him to Rajon Rondo, except with more of a 2-guard game (better shooter/scorer, not as good passer). They're a long way from competing, but they have some good young talent with Durant, Westbrook and Jeff Green.

5) Minnesota Timberwolves – Maybe I'm in the minority, but I think Kevin Love is not gonna be good. I believe that one of Minnesota's coaches described him as a "train wreck" physically, meaning he's going to get punished by NBA bigs. Al Jefferson is good and keeps getting better, and I really like Randy Foye even if he isn't playing well right now, but this team is terrible.

Pacific

1) LA Lakers (1) – As much as I dislike Kobe, his shortcomings as a player will only come back to bite this team in the playoffs. I don't see how they won't have another monster regular season with Andrew Bynum back. Trevor Ariza is also the most overlooked player on the team and he will have a big impact on how far they go, he can add toughness and raw ability to one of the weakest defenses in the NBA.

2) Phoenix Suns (5) – The Suns are the most disregarded team in the league. Trading Shawn Marion for Shaq was a GREAT move, and now that Mike D'Antoni is gone and they can slow their offense down, the world will see why (by the way that's not a knock on D'Antoni, I think he's a great offensive mind). Amare Stoudemire is a MONSTER, if he's able to improve his defensive ability (mostly protecting the basket) he will be the best big man in the league. Don't be surprised if Phoenix is fighting for the Western Conference title.

3) LA Clippers (7) – It's a real shame that Elton Brand left for Philly, but with the signing of Baron Davis they have a good team, a playoff contending team. Once Marcus Camby starts playing they're going to have a very good frontcourt with him, Chris Kaman and Al Thornton. Thornton is a BEAST, and I expect him to only improve as the year progresses.

4) Golden State Warriors – They're going to score a bunch of points so they'll win a few games. Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette are both very good all-around players, and when Monta Ellis comes back they'll have another guy capable of dropping 30 on any given night. But Ellis is not – at least from what I've seen – a point guard, let alone Baron Davis and this team is going to be lottery bound for sure.

5) Sacramento Kings – Bad team, plain and simple. Kevin Martin is allegedly a good scorer (I've never seen him play) and John Salmons is also supposedly good, though again I've never seen him play. They have a promising young frontcourt with Spencer Hawes and rookie Jason Thompson, but I'd be surprised if the Kings won more than 20-25 games.

Southwest

1) New Orleans Hornets (2) – I'm still amazed at how good this team is because the roster isn't overly impressive, but the team has been expertly put together. The addition of James Posey will only help because in addition to his great shooting stroke now they have a guy who can guard Kobe. They'll contend for the NBA title for sure.

2) Houston Rockets (3) – If they can somehow stay healthy – arguably the biggest 'if' in all of sports – the Rockets are, at least in my opinion, the best team in the NBA. To the idiots who say the team is better with Yao in street clothes, you are morons. I realize Rick Adleman likes to have his teams push the tempo, but Yao Ming is the best post scorer in the league and he's one of the more intimidating defensive presences in the league simply because of his size. No team has a better starting five, and they have a solid and somewhat deep bench. If somehow they stay healthy I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets won the championship.

3) San Antonio Spurs (6) – They're still the Spurs, right? Well they still have Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, and by the close of 2008 they'll have Manu Ginobili, so I guess they're still the Spurs. But they're aging rapidly, and I strongly feel that their title contending days are over. But Greg Popovich is one of the elite coaches in sports and when you pair him with the aforementioned trio of players and you're going to have a competitive team.

4) Dallas Mavericks – As bad as I like to think the Mavs are, they might have the deepest roster in the league. Jason Kidd has lost a couple steps, especially on the defensive end, but he's still the best passer in the game and one of the smartest players in the league. With Kidd leading Dirk, Josh Howard and company they're going to compete for a playoff spot.

5) Memphis Grizzlies – I guess I'm in the minority when I say that I think the Grizz robbed Minnesota when they traded Kevin Love and Mike Miller for OJ Mayo. Mayo is going to be a stud, and Love is a fat sack of nothing but effort and outlet passing. I really like the scoring duo of Rudy Gay and Mayo, and I was very impressed with rookie Marc Gasol during the Olympics as well. Not many wins this year, but this team is headed in the right direction.

Postseason Awards

MVP – LeBron James

Defensive POY – Josh Smith

Rookie of the Year – Derrick Rose

Most Improved POY – Nick Young

Comeback POY – Jermaine O'Neal

Sixth Man – Allen Iverson (if that's his role, otherwise Young AI aka Louis Williams)


 

All-NBA 1st Team

Chris Paul

Kobe Bryant

LeBron James

Amare Stoudemire

Dwight Howard


 

All-Defense 1st Team

Rajon Rondo

Caron Butler

Josh Smith

Jermaine O'Neal

Tyson Chandler


 

All-Rookie Team

Derrick Rose

Russell Westbrook

OJ Mayo

Michael Beasley

Jason Thompson


 

Breakout Team

Rajon Rondo (or Louis Williams if you don't want to count Rondo)

Nick Young

Al Thornton

Tyrus Thomas

Troy Murphy